USFL Week 3 Betting Lines, Picks and Predictions
The USFL is gaining traction with their product each week so far. The first week was rough for most teams, but there was more consistency and identity shown in Week 2. This was expected, and now the entertainment factor is becoming real.
We’ll look ahead to Week 3 of the USFL’s 10-week season and provide you with updates for each team as well as top picks and predictions. Every week will be a learning experience for every coaching staff and roster, meaning there’s a real opportunity for bettors to take advantage of the lack of knowledge. We can’t overreact to what happened in the first two weeks but must balance what we think with what we know.
We’ve chosen two games to highlight for our Week 3 preview and best bets. Hopefully sportsbooks will continue to offer enticing spreads and totals as they did in Week 2. Our weekly picks piece last week had us up several units already. For a recap of the rules and what makes USFL different from other football leagues, check out our USFL Betting Guide.
USFL Week 3 Betting Lines and Picks
Tampa Bay Bandits (1-1) vs. Houston Gamblers (1-1)
Both Tampa Bay and Houston are coming off tough losses that each must shake off quickly. Tampa was housed by New Orleans, showing a terrible effort on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu was completely shut down by New Orleans last week, and now this passing attack has become one of the least efficient in the league.
There’s time to turn things around against a mediocre Houston offense. Clayton Thorson has been worse than Ta’amu, which was predictable due to his strange fit in this passing game. The positive is that M.J. Thompson has been an excellent rusher, leading the league in yards. Can head coach Kevin Sumlin give Thorson easier looks off play-action to Thompson?
There’s not a lot of defensive talent between the teams. Houston corner Will Likely is the lone standout, with two interceptions and a pick-six on his resume. This is a tough game to judge based on all these factors.
I’ll take the Bandits in a bounce back game. They may have the lower floor but also the higher ceiling.
PICK: Bandits -1.5, BetMGM
New Orleans Breakers (2-0) vs. Birmingham Stallions (2-0)
The two undefeateds square off in a heavyweight bout. New Orleans, the prohibitive favorite in the early season, looks almost unstoppable with Larry Fedora’s offense boasting high efficiency and big plays. Quarterback Kyle Sloter has been a great point man with short passes, and rushers Jordan Ellis and T.J. Logan have combined for huge games as well.
The speed on the Breakers’ offense can be matched by the hometown Stallions. Birmingham has their own duo of backs worth watching in C.J. Marable and Tony Brooks-James. They’re right behind Ellis and Logan in production.
Dual-threat passer J’Mar Smith has been a revelation for the offense though. He’s averaging the highest yards per completion in the league and has added 44 rushing yards. His ability to create big plays out of nothing gives Birmingham an x-factor that even New Orleans lacks.
That being said, I think the Breakers are simply the best team right now. That may change in the next two months as teams continue to evolve.
PICK: Breakers -3.5, FanDuel Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Maulers (0-2) vs Michigan Panthers (0-2)
The two worst teams in the USFL also square off this week. Pittsburgh showed some signs of offensive life last week even in their 30-23 loss, but their defense remains awful. It’s hard to imagine this unit shutting anyone down, even the lowly Michigan offense.
This is Pittsburgh’s best chance for a win.
Quarterback Josh Love has to find a way to increase his efficiency. He’s completed 55.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Rusher Garrett Groshek is predictably second in the league in yards but has had to grind them out at 3.9 yards per carry. This offense needs efficiency.
Michigan’s defense isn’t likely the one to provide answers. They’re stingy and physical. Michigan had the chance to win both of their first two games exclusively due to the defense.
The offense has been a disaster under Shea Patterson. He’s completed just 57.4 percent of his passes for 5.9 yards per catch. He’s been putting the ball on the ground as well, showing major issues with ball security. A switch to Paxton Lynch may be for the best.
Simply moving to the erratic Lynch won’t fully fix everything, though. The running game is also inefficient and the personnel isn’t being enhanced by the scheme. There’s not an answer for Michigan to suddenly improve unless the offensive scheme changes or a quarterback completely outperforms their recent form.
We saw more positives out of Pittsburgh last week than Michigan, so we’ll take the chance on the underdog at least covering.
PICK: Maulers +2.5 and Under 39.5, Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Stars (1-1) vs New Jersey Generals (1-1)
The USFL’s top passer, Bryan Scott, faces off against another efficient passer in Luis Perez. Both Philadelphia and New Jersey have shown some championship potential at times with an explosive offense. This week is about trying to find consistency.
The Generals are more promising on offense but have a less sure-defense. Their backfield tandem of DeAndre Johnson and Darius Victor is the best in the league. With Perez healthy, the sky’s the limit for the unit. Their offensive line has blazed huge rushing lanes that have allowed the backs to average 5.7 and 4.1 yards per-carry, respectively.
No other offense has matched that production. Philadelphia basically doesn’t have a running game, with Darnell Holland leading the team with 48 yards. The unit rides or dies with Scott’s production.
Both defenses need to unearth some playmaking and reliability as well. The Stars have former Michigan Wolverine cornerback Channing Stribling playing well with two interceptions. But the unit has also given up several scoring drives in a row.
This is a tight line to play. I favor New Jersey’s well-rounded offense in what should be an entertaining battle if nothing else.
PICK: Generals +1.5 PointsBet