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USFL Week 4 Betting Lines, Picks and Predictions

Ian Wharton Fri 5/6 10:29am PT
USFL Week 4 picks
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Time is flying with the 2022 USFL season. Week 4 is already here, marking the end of the first month of action. We’ve seen the league develop significantly since opening kickoff, and betting on the USFL has been wonderfully profitable for us so far.

Week 3 was a fun-filled slate thanks to two comebacks. There’s only one undefeated team left after all this action. Could this be the week the Birmingham Stallions fall?

We’re back with our Week 4 preview and best bets. Hopefully sportsbooks will continue to offer enticing spreads and totals as they did in Week 3.

USFL Week 4 Betting Lines

Philadelphia Stars (1-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-2)

Friday, May 6, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST

This is the toughest matchup of the week to predict due to the nature of both Philadelphia and Michigan. There’s been little consistency on either side except for the Panthers’ stellar defense. Michigan has allowed an average of nine points through three games.

Their issue is that outside of a 24-point explosion, they haven’t scored effectively either. With hopes that backup quarterback Paxton Lynch might be the answer to their passing woes, head coach Jeff Fischer finally benched Shea Patterson. 

The problem, though, is that neither are accurate enough to overcome this limited group of receivers. That makes Michigan a throwback team operating with a barren passing attack. They won’t win most games, and their wins will be scarily close. That being said, their defense gives them a chance every week.

Philadelphia is an uneven performer in their own way. Switching between quarterbacks Byron Scott and Case Cookus hasn’t brought the fire that was expected. Scott is a quality passer who takes what defenses give to him effectively, whereas Cookus is averaging about half a yard further per attempt.

The complete lack of a running game is a bigger problem than the quarterback. The trench game on both sides is a mess for this team. And that’s why I’m taking the trench-focused and more dominant Panthers to grind out another victory.

USFL Pick: Panthers (-118), FOX Bet

New Jersey Generals (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (0-3)

Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 2:30pm EST

The Pittsburgh Maulers are the worst team in the USFL and it’s not close. Their loss to Michigan proved this, and the continued poor play by the offensive and defensive line continues to zap their ability to win. 

This team was built to run the ball effectively and control the clock, but rusher Garrett Groshek has only been able to manage 160 yards and zero touchdowns. The passing game with Josh Love is uninspiring. 

Not only is Love one of the least accurate passers, he overtook first-round pick Kyle Lauletta. Neither has found a consistent rapport with a receiving room that lacks talent.

This roster should’ve been built much differently but there’s not much this organization can do now except try to improve in the margins. They’re bad, but they’re about to face a team continually playing in tight games. New Jersey’s three battles have each been one-score games.

This team is fun if not bizarre. Their run-heavy attack with quarterback DeAndre Johnson has changed the way they play. Starter Luis Perez often cedes snaps to Johnson and the backup has dashed his way into creating an effective offense. 

Pittsburgh is probably not good enough to keep this game under nine points but New Jersey’s play style hasn’t produced a blowout yet. This is the largest spread of any USFL game in Week 4, so we’ll fade the line.

USFL Pick: Maulers +10 (-110), DraftKings

USFL Pick: Under 35.5 (-110), FOX Bet

Tampa Bay Bandits (2-1) vs. Birmingham Stallions (3-0)

Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:00pm EST

Birmingham was not given any favors when schedule makers gave them New Orleans and Tampa Bay in back-to-back weeks. Though the Stallions have clearly played well and are a force thanks to dual-threat quarterback J’Mar Smith, trying to follow up their comeback win against the Breakers will be difficult. Some of that is due to the unsustainably poor passing of Smith.

He’s completing just 51 percent of his passes despite ranking second in the league in yards. He’s not the only one with a low completion rate, which has been an issue for the league thus far, but the consistency is an issue when also coupling this with the poor run game. C.J. Marable is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and under 45 yards per game.

Tampa Bay must limit their turnovers to win this one. That’s how Birmingham has created easier scoring opportunities for themselves thus far. The Stallions have four interceptions and two forced fumbles thus far.

I like Tampa’s chances with quarterback Jordan Ta’amu getting back on track last week in a win. Neither team has a good offense though, so I’m taking the points and the under in a close game that comes down to the wire. I’m not so bold to take the Bandits outright, but this is a good value game to take the moneyline of the underdog if you’re wanting the maximum value.

USFL Pick: Bandits +3.5 (-110), BetMGM

USFL Pick: Under 41.5 (-110), BetMGM

Houston Gamblers (1-2) vs. New Orleans Breakers (2-1)

Sunday, May 8 at 3:00pm EST

The mighty fell last week as New Orleans succumbed to a late set of mistakes that gave the game to Birmingham. The Breakers are explosive and have quality play on both sides of the ball. But their biggest limitation might be with quarterback Kyle Sloter not being a good player under pressure despite leading the league in passing yards.

We’ll see how he can bounce back. Sloter fits Larry Fedora’s offense well because he immediately finds the open man. The negative is that the average per catch is among the worst in the league, so big plays aren’t happening nearly as much as they could with this playmaking corps.

Houston desperately needs to notch a win, so they should pin their ears back and try to force turnovers. Quarterback Clayton Thorson has been underwhelming as expected in Kevin Sumlin’s offense, showing poor accuracy and being unable to push the ball downfield often. He also lacks the receivers he needs to prop him up.

I simply don’t see the Gamblers having the personnel needed to pull the upset or even cover. New Orleans will clean up their messy play and take this one over.

USFL Pick: Breakers -4.5 (-115), Caesars

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