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USFL Week 5 Betting Lines, Picks and Predictions

Ian Wharton Fri 5/13 10:24am PT
USFL Week 5 picks
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Time is flying with the 2022 USFL season. Week 5 is already here, kicking off the second month of action. We’ve seen the league develop significantly since opening kickoff, and our predictions have continued to be on the money.

Week 4 was a fun-filled slate thanks to two comebacks. There’s only one undefeated team left after all this action. Could this be the week the Birmingham Stallions fall?

We’ve chosen two games to highlight for our Week 5 preview and best bets. Hopefully sportsbooks will continue to offer enticing spreads and totals as they did in Week 4. Since the opening kickoff, the USFL has been wonderfully profitable for us. 

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

USFL Week 5 Betting Lines

Tampa Bay Bandits (2-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-3)

 Friday, May 13 – 07:00 PM EST

Both Tampa Bay and Michigan are coming off painful losses. The Bandits had the undefeated Birmingham Stallions on the brink of defeat, and their defense did a wonderful job of restricting Alex McGough and company. Their job will be easier against Michigan but the Panthers are surging.

The 2-2 Bandits haven’t shown the efficiency or explosiveness expected out of them. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu simply doesn’t have the playmaking around him to reach his potential. His completion rate has hovered under 60 percent all season and the Panthers’ defense is fantastic.

The problem with betting on Michigan is their own lack of a passing game and turnover issues. They continue to cough up the ball and lose games because of that. However, Tampa Bay won’t be able to score, and this will be a razor tight game.

I’ll take the Panthers and the points as Reggie Corbin has emerged as a massive rushing threat for Michigan. Don’t expect there to be a lot of points, though.

[USFL Pick: Panthers +2.5 (-110)]

[USFL Pick: Under 34 (-110)]

New Orleans Breakers (3-1) vs. New Jersey Generals (3-1)

  Saturday, May 14 – 02:00 PM EST

The matchup of the week belongs to the offensively gifted New Orleans Breakers and New Jersey Generals. Both 3-1 teams have unique approaches and solid playmakers across their roster. Birmingham may be undefeated, but these two teams have the chance to win the title at the end of the season. As expected, this has a near-even betting line.

New Orleans quarterback Kyle Sloter exploded for 397 yards last week but also tossed three interceptions. He was aided by rusher Jordan Ellis, who eclipsed the 100-yard mark. This type of potential has been there with Larry Fedora’s offense but to see it in action and clicking was truly special.

New Jersey is also coming off an impressive win. While they failed to cover against lowly Pittsburgh, the Generals gritted out a win despite their vaunted rushing game struggling. Getting a 62-yard touchdown from receiver Alonzo Moore tipped the scales.

Their two-quarterback system is still strange but it works to keep defenses off-balance. The biggest wild card every week is DeAndre Johnson. He’s the most entertaining and effective singular talent in the league.

We’ll take the underdog Generals to win. New Orleans is very good, but the hot hand of Johnson is too enticing with value.

[USFL Pick: Generals ML to win (+125)]

Birmingham Stallions (4-0) vs. Philadelphia Stars (2-2)

Sunday, May 15 at 12:00pm EST

Birmingham is the most well-balanced team in the USFL. Their defense answered the call when they had to suffocate Tampa Bay’s offense to just 10 points last week. For as well as the Stallions’ offense has performed, it was refreshing to see their defense takeover when needed.

The Stallions’ run-first, dynamic ground game approach had incredible success until last week. Philadelphia doesn’t have a good run defense, though, making this a horrible matchup for them. Quarterback Shea Patterson and rusher Reggie Corbin combined for over 200 yards. 

Expect this week to go the same way, except the Stallions’ defense will put the clamps on Philadelphia’s new quarterback Case Cookus. Cookus has shown he’ll find big plays but plays at a low efficiency. That’s not the recipe to beat the Stallions because they have quality cornerback play.

Across the board we’re seeing the totals dip. Expectations were for games to be in the mid-40s overall, but no game has a higher total than this one at 36.5. We’ve seen offenses struggle to consistently perform despite rule changes that were put in place to supposedly help scoring.

We’ll avoid the total on this one.

[USFL Pick: Stallions -6.5 (-110)]

Pittsburgh Maulers (0-4) vs. Houston Gamblers (1-3)

Sunday, May 15 at 4:00pm EST

The incredible part of the Pittsburgh Maulers is just how inefficient their offense continues to be. Their offensive line has been the biggest reason for their winless start, and recent weeks have shown progress in overcoming that through quicker route patterns. But, the passing game is still only completing 54.8% of their passes for only six yards a completion. 

The run game hasn’t been better, either. It’s hard to blame the playmaking talent. However, at what point does Pittsburgh try someone else at quarterback than Josh Love, or at running back besides Garrett Groshek?

Pittsburgh covered their nine-point spread last week with a grittier performance. It’s still not enough for me to pick them again this week. Houston has massive infrastructure issues like Pittsburgh does and they can’t overcome their poor personnel choices on offenses at this stage of the season. 

At the same time, Houston is competitive against better teams and has been far from awful. I don’t like giving this many points to them, but we won’t try our luck after we hit on Pittsburgh covering last week.

[USFL pick: Gamblers -5.5 (-110)]

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