USFL Week 6 Preview, Odds, Best Bets, and Predictions
The 2022 USFL season is now midway through the 10-week campaign. Week 6 is upon us, and it’s time to start gearing up for the playoffs. The layout of the league is unique though, and even teams with just one win can still make a run.
Week 5 had several interesting results. Of course the Birmingham Stallions remained undefeated with their 30-17 beatdown of the Philadelphia Stars. But we also saw the Pittsburgh Maulers break their losing streak with a thrilling 21-20 win.
So much continues to change on a weekly basis that we have to stay flexible with our picks. Michigan and Pittsburgh are a competitive 1-4, and New Orleans has started to show major weakness recently. What happens down the stretch may be shocking compared to what we had though after the first month of action.
Our knowledge of these rosters, coaching staffs, and the league itself has allowed us to prosper thus far. Join us again for our continued USFL coverage. See our Week 6 preview and best bets for every game this week.
USFL Week 6 Matchup Analysis
Let’s take a look at our Week 6 best bets and predictions for all four games this week. Odds are via BetMGM.
Houston Gamblers vs. New Jersey Generals
There’s not a more difficult team in the USFL to watch weekly than the Houston Gamblers right now. The passing attack with Clayton Thorson continues to get worse as defenses have clamped down on receivers running short routes. Thorson doesn’t have the ability to make secondaries pay for their aggressiveness.
His completion rate continues to dip into the 40s, which is insane for an Air Raid offense. He completed just 11-of-24 passes for 165 yards with one score and one pick against the Maulers. Pittsburgh was getting eviscerated in the first month of action, so this is either a sign of their improvement or Houston’s continued demise.
In fairness to Thorson, there’s too much pressure on him to succeed with little help. The receiving corps is generally slow so the margin for error for Thorson to produce is small. The running game has the league’s leading rusher in Mark Thompson, with 400 yards on 4.8 yards per-carry. But he’s also reached the end zone just once.
Houston has defensive star Will Likely and he is coming off another big game. He racked up eight tackles, half a sack, one interception, and two pass breakups. He and Thompson both have to be great for Houston to win.
New Jersey is a tough matchup for any team. Their rushing attack is relentless thanks to DeAndre Johnson’s control of the offense. Darius Victor has emerged as a playmaker worth watching each week as the top tailback on the unit.
Their mixture of ball control and surprising passing efficiency is an issue for every team. But that also tends to limit their possessions. This is good when we have such a large spread.
Defensive back Shalom Luani nabbed two picks last week against New Orleans Beakers quarterback Kyle Slot. Luani hasn’t shown that type of natural feel until last week, and part of his opportunity came because Sloter was constantly under pressure. The Generals are rounding into form at the right time and are 4-1 now.
Still, it’s shocking the Generals only won by 10 when they dominated this game. Although the Gamblers are a mess, they run the ball enough and have some defensive difference-makers who can force issues. I like the Gamblers to cover, but would not take this line if it drops below seven.
USFL pick: Gamblers +7 (-110)
Pittsburgh Maulers vs. New Orleans Breakers
We touched on the struggles of the Houston offense above and that was certainly influenced by the Pittsburgh Maulers’ defense. No longer winless, Pittsburgh has quickly gotten their form up to a more respectable level over the last three weeks. Sacrificing their run-first attack for a more pass-heavy game is part of that.
The other factor is who they’re throwing the ball with. Kyle Lauletta never made sense for this offense. Instead, Vad Lee offers more physical upside as a passer and rusher despite not being overly aggressive or accurate either. There are limitations but it’s about making the best of the situation.
Lee sparked a comeback that ended with a brilliant finale. With Lee now as the man under center, look for Pittsburgh to be more entertaining and have more upside any given week. It’s wild to see them have eight points given to them in this spread.
Part of this is that New Orleans has taken a step back recently. Larry Fedora’s explosive offense no longer has that zest as the line has been less effective. In turn, Kyle Sloter has been overwhelmed under pressure and the running game hasn’t been nearly as reliable.
It’s hard to overcome bad quarterback play, even in the USFL. I expect New Orleans to win but it won’t be a blowout.
USFL pick: Maulers +8 (-110)
Tampa Bay Bandits vs. Philadelphia Stars
The USFL’s second-leading passer in terms of yards, Jordan Ta’amu, has served as the sole identity of this offense for much of the season. He’s been solid despite seeing an accuracy dip over the last few weeks. Teams are being more physical than Tampa Bay’s offense, and that’s disrupted the rhythm of the offense significantly.
Their battle against Michigan last week was a good example of that. Michigan is one of the most physical and defensively talented teams in the league. Their issue often comes down to turnovers and an inconsistent offense.
Tampa overcame them and Ta’amu played an efficient game. The lack of a consistent running game has been tough to deal with, but the team is effective at winning in short-yardage situations. There was tangible growth from the unit against Michigan, and that’ll serve this team well against a lowly Philadelphia team.
Look for Bandits defensive stars Christian Sam (seven tackles, one tackle for loss, one interception, and three pass deflections), and Greg Reaves (seven tackles, two sacks, one pass deflection) to take control of the game just like they did last week.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia should be bigger underdogs. Outside of the versatile rusher and receiving threat Paul Terry, the Stars lack reliable playmaking for quarterback Case Cookus. Cookus himself hasn’t been consistent either though, seemingly being exposed with more playing time as backups often are.
Part of Philadelphia’s problem last week was playing the best team in the league. Birmingham is deep and generally rock solid on both sides of the ball. An inconsistent team will struggle against them.
Tampa is also inconsistent. There’s certainly a window for the Stars to cover or win outright, but it would require unusual performances from them and the Bandits to happen. We don’t like to bet like that, so we’ll take the Bandits to cover.
The over is also a better play here. The Stars don’t have a great offense but neither team is consistently great on defense. Expect this to be a 24-20 type of game.
Free USFL Pick: Bandits -3 (-110)
Free USFL Pick: Over 39.5 (-110)
Michigan Panthers vs. Birmingham Stallions
The best team in the league faces the most cursed team in the league. The 5-0 Stallions have only continued to impress. They’re able to throw out several different iterations of their offense and still be good enough to win.
That all starts with quarterback J’Mar Smith and rusher C.J. Marable. Smith is improving so rapidly that Birmingham might actually bench Alex McGough outright. For example, Smith completed 17-of-22 passes for 203 yards and one score last week, compared to McGough’s 4-of-11 for 50 yards, one touchdown and one pick performance.
Smith simply changes how defenses must account for him better than McGough despite the former Seattle Seahawk being a good passer. The USFL hasn’t rewarded pure passers as much as we might’ve expected early in the season. This has only made Birmingham more dangerous.
Michigan truly has an uphill battle here. Shea Patterson has done well as a dual-threat in some games but he’s the only threat on the offense. The defense is physical but has been wearing down over recent games.
Losing late against Tampa Bay might have been a nail-in-the-coffin moment if it weren’t for the rest of their division being so bad. They still have a positive point differential despite being 1-4. This team isn’t bad but they snowball points together and struggle with their identity.
The best chance Michigan has to compete in this game is to have Patterson again go for 350 total yards and hope for some defensive playmaking to emerge. Lance Lenoir Jr. and LaMichael Pettway had solid games against Tampa, can they blend big plays with consistent first downs? Those are generally basic offensive necessities but not something Jeff Fisher’s crew have been able to count on this season.
This line is a tough one, but we’ll take the better team to win and cover. I wouldn’t take this over seven, though. Michigan is tough and will keep the score low.
USFL Pick: Stallions -6.5 (-110)
USFL Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)