USFL Week 8 Odds Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

The 2022 USFL season is approaching its first postseason as the 10-week schedule is winding down. Week 8 is upon us, and the playoffs are coming fast. The layout of the league is unique enough to allow even the misfortune teams back into the race.

Week 7 had several interesting results. The Houston Gamblers dropped a key game as the Philadelphia Stars dropped 22 unanswered fourth quarter points in a comeback win. The league favorites both won, as the Birmingham Stallions and New Jersey Generals emerged from tough games that had each sweating until the final moments.

So much continues to change on a weekly basis that we have to stay flexible with our picks. 

Our knowledge of these rosters, coaching staffs, and the league itself has allowed us to prosper thus far. Join us again for our continued USFL coverage.

USFL Week 8 Matchup Analysis

Let’s take a look at our Week 8 best bets and predictions for this week’s slate. Odds are via BetMGM.

Michigan Panthers (1-6) vs. Philadelphia Stars (4-3)

There’s not a tougher team to gauge than the Philadelphia Stars. They’re able to overcome an inconsistent offensive through timely defensive plays but it’s hard to see them having a significant upside. Look at it this way – can they beat the USFL’s top teams if quarterback Case Cookus continues to average 5.3 yards per-completion and throw two interceptions per-game, or if tailback Matt Colburn is averaging 3.7 yards per-carry?

It’s not likely, and it’s shocking it’s working even against the bad USFL teams. The Stars have a real playoff shot. But they’ll need to fend off a Michigan team that has changed significantly since the start of the year in order to keep winning and staying relevant in the playoff race.

If the Stars can even get into the playoffs, at least they give themselves the opportunity to prove themselves. Considering Cookus is still learning as he transitions from a backup to a starter, it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll improve. But Philadelphia has to see it soon.

For the Panthers, this game is about pride at this point. Jeff Fisher’s squad made the bold decision to drop Shea Patterson, who wasn’t the lone issue with the roster, and start Josh Love instead. Love responded with a horribly inefficient game last week against the New Orleans Breakers. 

The Panthers squandered a wonderful game from rushers Reggie Corbin and Cameron Scarlett. In total, the Panthers ran for a whopping 192 yards and two scores on 34 attempts. That type of execution usually leads to a win in the USFL, so it’s quite the issue when a team still loses by one full score.

I don’t trust the Panthers’ ability to even get stops anymore despite their excellent early-season defense. Offenses have found weaknesses in Michigan’s secondary and there’s been an increase in efficiency since the opening month. This should be a fairly comfortable win for the Stars.

USFL pick: Stars -6 (-105)

Houston Gamblers (1-6) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (3-4)

Houston remains the strangest, most frustrating team in the league. They’re averaging 22.3 points per-game, which is almost five points more than the Tampa Bay Bandits. And yet, their defense has given up a whopping 25.3 points per-game and they continue to fall apart at the worst times.

How Houston produces is most fascinating because they’re dominated by foes in total yardage. This Gamblers offense has averaged only 150 passing yards and 97 rushing yards per-game, but has given up 226 passing yards and 140 rushing yards per-game. That matches up with their 1-6 record despite the point disparity rivaling the 3-4 Bandits.

The losses in the margins happen for two reasons. The first is coaching. While Kevin Sumlin had bright moments throughout his collegiate career, he is not an in-game coach who makes adjustments effectively. That has continued to haunt him this year.

The other reason is the lack of a dynamic star playmaker who can ascend the moment. Quarterback Clayton Thorson was finally benched last week after a season of uninspiring play, and backup Kenji Bahar at least started throwing downfield and testing tight passing windows. But Bahar isn’t surrounded by much talent, so the ground game was inefficient and the receivers scrapped for whatever they could get outside of a 45-yard and 32-yard completion. 

Houston is a good “bad” team though. They fight hard and usually cover the spread. This week’s matchup is against a bad “good” team in Tampa Bay.

The Bandits have a similar outcome most weeks. Their offense lacks complexity because the running backs can’t threaten anyone and the offensive line has quarterback Jordan Ta’amu scrambling for his life. Ta’amu has just 1,404 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the year.

Each week continues to get more difficult for Ta’amu and the Bandits’ offense as defenses have figured them out. Houston’s weak defense should open opportunities for Ta’amu to find holes downfield though, making this matchup a potential upset candidate if the dual-threat can stay upright and avoid interceptions.  

It’s hard to trust either team. This line is tempting since the Gamblers have lost by just one or two a handful of times this season. We’ll bet on that happening again, so the points are our play.

USFL pick: Gamblers +4 (-110)

Pittsburgh Maulers (1-6) vs. New Jersey Generals (6-1)

The Pittsburgh Maulers put up a great fight against the USFL’s finest last week as they were actually leading the undefeated Birmingham Stallions at half time. As usual, Pittsburgh simply fell short because of their talent deficit. But their new culprit may be head coach Kirby Wilson.

Wilson was heard over the broadcast, as he was wearing a live mic, bemoaning starting quarterback Vad Lee’s demeanor. He then benched Lee for Roland Rivers with less than five minutes left on the game clock, and the results were disastrous. While Lee struggled on his own, he had kept the Maulers within one score until that point.

The Maulers can’t overcome incompetent coaching. They were able to cover the spread last week though and this is something to note for bettors. But oddsmakers responded by dropping this line to a much more attractive play.

For New Jersey, this is about avoiding the embarrassment of a loss. New Jersey will win thanks to their balanced offense and ability to maintain efficiency even as the rest of the league has inconsistent performances. The Generals were solid across the board in their needed, playoff-clinching win against Tampa Bay.

The Maulers were able to put a stranglehold on the Stallions’ run-oriented offense last week but look for the Generals to see more of an advantage in the passing game and not overly rely on the ground game. Luis Perez has continued to deliver reliable performances that keep the offense controlling the clock and possession of the ball.

The Generals’ defense may be why this team can win the USFL championship, though. They came up huge against a solid Tampa Bay offense that has playmakers across the board. Tampa was unable to convert a fourth-down attempt inside the red zone, making the third such missed red zone opportunity of the game.

They also logged three interceptions, three sacks, and nine tackles for loss. Those impact plays aren’t happening for any other defense in the league right now. Pittsburgh could be in for a massive blowout if they allow the Generals to play so freely on defense.

USFL Pick: Generals -8.5 (-110)

New Orleans Breakers (5-2) vs. Birmingham Stallions (7-0)

Is this the week the mighty, undefeated Stallions will fall? It might be, but it depends on the health of quarterback J’Mar Smith. Smith was significantly limited in terms of effectiveness last week and responded with a vulnerable showing. Birmingham will not win if they get a completion rate under 40 percent again.

For as well as Bo Scarbrough has played for a street free-agent, ramming him into the back of his blockers for 27 carries each week won’t win many games. Getting by the awful Maulers is one thing but the Breakers have the ability to play well. Their margin for error is tiny right now.

The Breakers must enter this game with a focus on preventing negative plays. Birmingham has a stellar defense that was able to rack up five tackles for loss and three pass deflections. That’s not disastrous but those are the areas that can be the difference between a loss and win.

New Orleans is a solid team that had to overcome their own questions last week. Quarterback Kyle Sloter emerged through some adversity when head coach Larry Fedora gave backup Zach Smith the chance to prove himself over Sloter. Smith was fine but not good enough, and Sloter ended up responding with a great fourth quarter en route to the comeback win.

One thing that has hurt this passing game is the lack of a dominant run game. Jordan Ellis is a good back who can pop off a solid gain at any time but he’s not someone who will win games on his own. The Breakers have a quarterback ceiling that is unfortunate because they could be undefeated if they didn’t.

Regardless, this will be a battle. Because we don’t exactly know what the Stallions’ offense will be, we’ll take the Breakers. A healthy Smith would mean a six-point line but he’s not, so we’ll take the cover in a close finish.

USFL Pick: Breakers +3 (-110)