Valero Texas Open Predictions: STL’s Win, Top 10, & Longshot Golf Bets
Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and PGA betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, STL will run over his favorite 2022 Valero Texas Open.
Hello again, everyone! After a crazy week at the Match Play event, we’re back to the grind with the normal PGA Tour schedule. Except, of course, for that little tournament called The Masters next week.
Before we get to Masters week, we have the Valero Texas Open. The AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will be the host course in an event that is often impacted greatly by weather. Wind can be a big factor in Texas at this time of the year, and this is one of the events where we often see an edge in the draw. This could impact some live betting opportunities throughout the tournament, but as of now it does not look like we need to prioritize early or late tee times on Thursday for our preferred picks.
As usual, I’ll be looking at good ball strikers, but this course is also one that tends to lend itself to bigger hitters off the tee. As a par 72 course, par five scoring also has importance. Let’s get to some bets!
STL’s Top Win Market Bets
Rory McIlroy To Win (+800 , BetMGM)
I like what McIlroy decided to do this week. He elected to skip a potential grueling Match Play week in favor of playing the week prior to The Masters. It’s not something that he generally does, but perhaps he’s looking to change things up in advance of the annual trip to Augusta. There’s no doubt that his ability generally laps this weak field, and I could see him running away with this event if he brings his “A” game. He ranks second in this field in strokes gained tee to green and first in overall strokes gained over the past six months. Give me him on any site where you can still get him at 7.5 to 1 or better odds, in this that’s at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Bryson DeChambeau To Win (+2800, DK)
I am not going to pretend that I know exactly where Bryson’s game is at right now, but I do know that he’s going to want to try to make sure it’s right prior to Augusta. When is the last time he has been 28-to-1 to win in a field like this on a course that caters to bigger hitters off the tee? It certainly hasn’t been since his debut PGA Tour win. Of course there’s risk, but these odds at DraftKings are silly. You could be looking at this and wishing you had bet it come Sunday afternoon
Top Ten Market Bets
Tony Finau Top Ten Finish (+475, Bet365)
Tony Finau has not been in top form of late, but he did make NINE birdies in his final Match Play round in a head-to-head win over Xander Schauffele. Perhaps that’s a sign that he is turning a corner. I’m also not worried about his motivation level this week, as he surely wants to get things figured out before The Masters. Despite his recent struggles, Finau still ranks 17th in this field in ball striking over the last 50 rounds. This is not a strong field event, and I may be a glutton for punishment, but I think that Finau surprises everyone and shows up in a big way. Get him at these favorable top ten odds via Bet365.
Alex Smalley Top Ten Finish (+700, FanDuel)
Smalley is a solid up and coming golfer on the PGA Tour. In last week’s alternate field event, he closed with a sparkling 65 on Sunday. For the tournament, he made 23 birdies and an eagle in his four rounds. A poor Saturday round was the only thing that kept him from the winner’s circle. He will not be overwhelmed in this field, and he ranks 17th in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds. Look for him to be a potential sneaky contender again this week.
Long Shots
This is a very weak field once you get through the top 15 or 20 golfers, so backing a long shot to win isn’t really the best strategy overall. However, we have seen some dark horses contend this year. If you’re looking for triple digit odds, give me Martin Laird (100-to-1 on DraftKings) and Troy Merritt (100-to-1 on PointsBet) as the best long shots with a chance. Laird has strong course history and great ball striking numbers this year, while Merritt has shown sneaky upside on occasion.
Best Bet to Miss Cut
Corey Conners (+275, DraftKings)
This does carry some risk, but the +275 odds are too good for me to pass up. Conners played all seven rounds at the Match Play last week, though Paul Casey did withdraw early in their match. Still, Conners played a LOT of golf over those four days, and he’s in The Masters field next week. Is he really going to give it his all in San Antonio? If he gets off to a poor start, I could see him mailing it in. I think there’s about a 35% chance of him missing the cut here, making these odds favorable for us.
Best Matchup
Russell Knox over Jason Day (-110, DraftKings)
It seems weird to target Knox over Day in an “even” matchup, but it’s actually a bit of a slight to Knox at this stage. Day has shown the occasional flash of his old self, but for the most part his results have lagged for two years running. Meanwhile, Knox has quietly been putting up solid numbers so far in 2022. He has made six straight cuts and seven of eight overall during this calendar year, and that includes a pair of top eight finishes. He was very impressive at THE PLAYERS a few weeks ago, and he’s not yet in The Masters field. As for the stats, he ranks 8th in this field in ball striking and 4th in strokes gained on approach since the start of the fall swing. I expect him to play well again this week.
Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!