2022 Valspar Championship PGA Betting Picks: Win, Top 10, Longshot Bets
Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and PGA betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, STL will run over his favorite 2022 Valspar Championship.
Hello again, everyone! After a whirlwind week at THE PLAYERS Championship that featured a ton of weather delays, we have another Florida event on tap with the Valspar Championship for this mid-March event.
As for this tournament the event will be played at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. This is a very difficult par 71 layout, but it does not fit the traditional par 71 that would have three par fives and four par threes. This course actually has four par fives and five par threes, which is not something you often see. However, the par fives are no pushover, as they often average among the hardest sets of par fives that we see regularly on the PGA Tour. There are generally no “easy” holes around this place. As we see with most challenging courses, accuracy, ball striking, and approach play are of prime importance.
STL’s Top Win Market Bets
Viktor Hovland to win (+1100, PointsBet) – If I’m choosing the best golfer at the top this week, I think that has to be Viktor Hovland. He leads this field in strokes gained off the tee over the past six months, and he ranks inside the top five in basically every ball striking metric during that span. It also helps that he will be seeing this course for the second time professionally, and he just happened to finish third in his tournament debut a year ago. He is dialed in right now, too, as he led the field in strokes gained from tee to green at TPC Sawgrass last week with some absolutely ridiculous numbers. Get him at double digit odds on PointsBet while you still can, as he’s down to 9-to-1 on some books now.
Jason Kokrak to win (+3500, BetMGM) – Kokrak has not missed a cut since October, and he sits 37th on Tour in ball striking for the 2021-2022 season. He broke a string of three straight top 30 finishes by fading to a T53 last week at TPC Sawgrass, but that’s not a major concern. The upside hasn’t shown much lately, but perhaps a course he likes will get Kokrak back in the mix. He has some of the best course history at Copperhead, as he has finished 8th, 2nd, and 13th in the last three editions of this event — gaining well over 20 strokes compared to field average in those starts. He’s definitely worth a look at these odds on BetMGM.
STL’s Top Ten Market Bets
Keegan Bradley Top Ten Finish (+500, DraftKings Sportsbook) – Keegan Bradley has always been a streaky player, and he appears to be gaining momentum at the right time. He has now posted finishes of 11th and 5th in his last two starts. He is coming off a very strong week at TPC Sawgrass, where he ranked second in the field in strokes gained from tee to green — behind only Viktor Hovland. That’s pretty strong company. He grades out as a solid play across the board, and he is also coming off a runner-up finish at this very event last year. He almost ALWAYS starts off well at this tournament, as he infamously missed the cut in 2016 after being the first round leader. These are very favorable odds for a top ten given his current form and course history.
Jhonnatan Vegas Top Ten Finish (+1100, Bet365 and DraftKings) – Vegas ended up missing the cut by one at TPC Sawgrass last week, and that has his odds depressed a little bit heading into a new tournament. He had made five of six cuts prior to last week’s hiccup, and I think this is a nice bounce back opportunity. He ranks 7th in this field in ball striking over the past 50 measured rounds. With double-digit odds on the top ten, he grades out as a +EV bet here.
Long Shots and Other Bets
This is a surprisingly strong field for the week after THE PLAYERS, so we can get some talent at long odds. We haven’t seen much from Webb Simpson lately, and he missed the cut despite having the favorable end of the weather draw last week. Still, it’s been a long time since he’s been sitting at +7000 odds. That’s worth a sprinkle with his talent and his ability to play on difficult courses. Pat Perez and Troy Merritt are a couple of other long shots that you can find at triple-digit odds.
Best Bets to Miss Cut
- Sam Burns to miss the cut (+320, FanDuel)
- Tyrrell Hatton to miss the cut (+280, FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (+390, FanDuel)
I think there’s really solid value on some missed cut odds at Fanduel Sportsbook this week. Remember, last week’s tournament featured a LOT of delays and didn’t finish until late Monday. This event starts with a very short turnaround for these three players, all of whom made the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week. If you bet all of these to win the same number of units, you only need to hit one to end up with a profit. I’m confident that at least one of these players is going to miss the cut. If two (or all three) hit, then we’ve got a big payday. Don’t be afraid to expect the unexpected this week.
Matchup – Keegan Bradley (+105, DraftKings) over Abraham Ancer – I’m really surprised we are getting this one at plus money. As I mentioned earlier in the article, I’m on Keegan Bradley as a top ten bet this week. He’s in solid form, and Ancer isn’t. The latter has not posted a single top 30 finish in calendar year 2022 to date. Take the plus money and bet Bradley with confidence.
Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!