Warriors vs. Celtics Odds: Noto’s NBA Finals Best Bets, Game 1 Pick ATS

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his NBA Finals series predictions and picks for game 2. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet on the Warriors vs. Celtics!

There are few things in life greater than a hot streak, at least for those of us that like to bet on sports. We have rattled off wins in five straight slates and picked up wins in both of the conference finals bets. It’s been such a great run that we have already locked up a profit for the entire playoffs. Even if we miss the series bet and go 0-for-7 against the spread, we will still walk away from the postseason in the green. We have already accomplished our goal and potentially still have seven more games to bet on. 

We aren’t going to rest on our laurels. Let’s keep the hot streak going into the NBA Finals. As has been the case before the start of each round, I will break down the matchup and give my pick for the series and for Game 1.

Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Running Totals 

• Series Bets: 11-2
• Series Props: 3-4
• Series Profit/Loss: +0.53
• ATS Bets: 45-34-1
• ATS Profit/Loss: +6.7 units
• Total Profit/Loss: +9.23 units

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Odds

Advantages by the Numbers

NBA Finals Preview

Let’s start with the Celtics, who picked up impressive road wins in each of the last two series. They were facing elimination against the Bucks in Game 6 in Milwaukee, but walked away with the win. They were facing elimination against the Heat in Game 7 in Miami, but walked away with a win. They have had the tougher path to the NBA Finals, as they’ve had to beat the Nets (Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant), the Bucks (defending champions), and the Heat (top seed in the East). They have already picked up seven wins on the road in the playoffs, which will be needed in the NBA Finals since they don’t have home-court advantage. 

The Warriors didn’t have the best regular season, but were still able to secure 53 wins despite missing Klay Thompson and Draymond Green for extended periods of time. It’s been all business since the playoffs started, as they beat the Nuggets in five games, the Grizzlies in six games, and the Mavericks in five games. Their path to the finals hasn’t been too difficult, but we shouldn’t hold that against them. This team has already won three titles together and certainly has the edge when it comes to experience. 

The Celtics have all of the pieces needed to win the championship – they have two superstars, they have a suffocating defense, they have a sharp head coach, and they can win on the road. They were also the league’s best team in the second half of the regular season and it wasn’t particularly close. There are plenty of reasons to talk yourself into betting on Boston in this series. 

However…

I view the Warriors as a smash play. The two biggest bets that I have ever made have been on Tiger Woods to make the cut in each of the last two majors (thank you, Tiger). After seeing the -150 line for the series, the Warriors might become the biggest bet I’ve ever made. They have yet to lose at home in the playoffs (9-0) and have won a game on the road in 26 straight playoff series. Yes, you read that correctly. If the Warriors pick up at least one win on the road, the Celtics will have to win at least two times in San Francisco to become NBA champions. 

As my main man Kevin Garnett once said, “ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE,” but my money is on the Warriors. 

NBA Finals Best Bets

• Series Bet: Golden State (1.5 units at -150)
• Series Prop: Golden State to win Game 1 + the series (1 unit at +120)
• Game 1 ATS Pick: Golden State -3.5