Washington Nationals Futures Odds and 2022 Pitching Outlook

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at the Washington Nationals’ pitching staff and futures odds just in time for Opening Day. Make sure to claim $1000 free bet with our BetMGM promo.

Washington Nationals Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 69.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +30000
• Division Winner: +5500
• To Make the Playoffs: +920
• National League Winner: +8000
• World Series Champion: +15000

Nationals Pitching Preview

Patrick Corbin (+12500)

Patrick Corbin was, by nearly all accounts, one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2021. The fact that he is listed as the ace of this staff tells bettors all they need to know about the state of the franchise. Across 171.2 innings of work in 2021, Corbin posted a 5.82 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and a 5.41 FIP. He ranked in the 35th percentile in average exit velocity, the 8th percentile in xwOBA, and the 18th percentile in strikeout-rate. His velocity and spin rates on his three most-used offerings continued their rapid decline. Opposing hitters demolished his sinker and fastball to the tune of a .388 wOBA and a .401 wOBA, respectively. There is little reason to expect much better in 2022 from Corbin, who is now three years removed from his only truly great season at the big-league level.

He’s not someone MLB futures bettors should bet on, but Corbin’s NL Cy Young odds are +6600 at BetMGM Sportsbook yet you can get +12500 at Caesars.

Josiah Gray (+20000)

A former second round draft selection, Josiah Gray was one of the major pieces that came to the Washington Nationals in return for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Unfortunately, Gray struggled to a 5.48 ERA, 4.57 xERA, and a 6.00 FIP in his first taste of MLB action. Still, he has a strong track record of success in the minors and showed some promising signs in 2021. His chase rate ranked in the 80th percentile and he struck-out batters at a rate better than league average. Command and avoiding barrels remain of salient concern. However, there is plenty of time for the 24 year old to continue his development. It is not time to write him off just yet.

Erick Fedde

In five years at the MLB level, Erick Feede has never posted better than a 4.50 ERA, 4.89 xERA, or a 4.66 FIP. His 21.7 strikeout percentage in 2021 represented a career-best, but still ranked in only the 35th percentile among qualified pitchers. His command is only league average and his average exit velocity is far worse than can be tolerated for a pitcher who so rarely generates swings-and-misses. Fedde’s velocity and spin rates rank in the bottom-third of baseball. Opposing batters tattooed his sinker, his most frequent pitch, for a .398 wOBA last summer. There is not much to like here.

Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez last pitched in the MLB during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. In 53.0 innings, he delivered a 6.62 ERA, 5.48 xERA, and a 5.46 FIP. He ranked in the 18th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, velocity, and strikeout percentage. The Nationals are hopeful that he will eat innings in 2022, but there is little expectation when it comes to his performance.

Josh Rogers

In 2021, Josh Rogers ranked in the 14th percentile in fastball velocity, and the 16th percentile or worse in spin rates on both of primary pitches. His 3.28 ERA beguiled a far more unpleasant 5.62 xERA and a 5.83 FIP. Having struck-out only 14.6 percent of hitters he faced last summer, while simultaneously exhibiting poor command–it is unlikely that we will see much growth from Rogers in 2022.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Nationals bullpen ranked 29th in FIP (4.86), 28th in xFIP (4.75), 24th in strikeout percentage (22.3%), 11th in walk-rate (10.4%), and 27th in WHIP (1.44). 

There is something to be said for being blunt about one’s aspirations. There is nothing less unclear about a team’s hopes for a season when they have Steve Cishek as arguably their best relief option. Though Cishek pitched reasonably well with a 3.42 ERA, 3.57 xERA, and a 3.74 FIP in 2021, he is far from dominant in the late innings. Prior to last summer, he posted a 4.38 xERA and a 4.54 FIP or worse in back-to-back years. He ranked in only the 30th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 6th percentile in walk-rate in 2021. Neither a lack of swing-and-miss stuff nor poor command are particularly desirable traits.

Sam Clay finished 2021 with a 5.60 ERA, 4.83 xERA, and a 4.61 FIP. He ranked in only the 6th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 23rd percentile in walk-rate. As if it could be any worse, he also ranked in the 29th percentile or lower in average exit velocity and xwOBA. Poor velocity and unimpressive spin rates do not inspire much hope for his future development.

Since the beginning of 2019, Sean Doolittle owns a 4.37 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. In that span, he has struck-out 24.1 percent of batters while walking 8.1 percent that come to the plate. Far removed from his glory days, Doolittle ranked in only the 8th percentile in average exit velocity and the 39th percentile in xwOBA in 2021. Entering his age-35 season, league average production would be a win, both for him and the Nationals front office.

Paolo Espino is not awful, but that is about the nicest thing anyone can say for a pitcher who ranked in the 32nd percentile in average exit velocity, 22nd percentile in xwOBA, and the 22nd percentile in xERA in 2021. Espino has elite command, but lacks the ability to miss bats on even a semi-regular basis. Expect him to post numbers in 2022 that are similar to his career 4.58 ERA and 4.86 FIP. At 35 years old, he is what he is and everyone knows it. There are worse things in life than being a serviceable MLB pitcher.

Kyle Finnegan was briefly elevated to be the Nationals’ closer in 2021, following the trade deadline. He ended up saving 11 games, but was mostly ineffective from August 1st to the end of the regular season–posting a 4.13 ERA and a 5.92 FIP. Similar to the rest of this bullpen, he should be somewhere near league average in production in 2022.

At the risk of being redundant, Andres Machado is a good, but not great reliever. In 35.2 innings in 2021 for the Nationals, he delivered a 3.53 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 4.63 FIP. His ceiling is limited by an inability to strike-out many batters, while simultaneously struggling to find the strike-zone consistently. Yet, he probably will not be terrible in 2022.

Patrick Murphy has only 34.0 innings of experience at the big-league level. In limited work in 2021, his fastball registered in the 91st percentile in velocity, but lower-quadrant spin rates make the pitch far more hittable than most pitches than approach 100 miles-per-hour. As a result, he finished the year with a 5.14 ERA, 4.92 xERA, and a 3.99 FIP. He does not project much better than league average at his best.

Tanner Rainey owns a career 6.04 ERA and a 5.24 FIP. It is hard to do much when opposing batters post a .410 wOBA against a pitch thrown 64.7 percent of the time. Good velocity and impressive spin rates do not matter much when the majority of the balls thrown end up in the middle-third of the plate.