Wednesday MLB Odds and Betting Picks (July 28)
As the 2021 MLB season inches closer to the home stretch, and the playoff race continues to heat up, the stages are set for a great second half of baseball. Every day seems to offer a full slate of baseball goodness lately, with a consistently plentiful assortment of great betting opportunities on the horizon.
Today is no different—Wednesday’s MLB schedule features a whopping 16 games, including a double-header for the Red Sox and Blue Jays so they can make up their Tuesday night rainout. Weather permitting, five games will start by 4:10 eastern. There’s also a notable AL East showdown on ESPN during primetime. Check out the preview at RotoGrinders for Yankees vs. Rays odds and picks.
This is gonna be awesome.
And we are going to make some more money, as we have been doing all season with our Bets of the Day. We went 2-1 Tuesday, with the Padres’ seven-run fifth inning keeping us from the clean sweep.
Overall, our Bets of the Day have gone 32-19 this season, and we are all about making that win-loss record more lopsided. Let’s go out and make some more money off these sportsbooks!!
As always, all odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com or Baseball Reference.
MLB Picks, Best Bets for Wednesday
St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians
Pitching Matchup: Kwang Hyun Kim vs. Zach Plesac
MLB Bet: Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
Our first Bet of the Day comes from one of the two early games on the slate, with the Indians’ Zach Plesac scheduled to toss out the first pitch at 1:10. I have a great deal of confidence in the Cardinals, who have won seven of their last ten games. The Indians, meanwhile, have lost six of their last eight games, and rank 27th in runs over the past 15 days (38 runs, 3.45 runs per game).
Kim has very quietly turned into a great pitcher for the Cards. The 33-year old southpaw had a 1-5 record and 3.98 ERA one month ago, before he went on a complete tear. Kim has notched wins in five consecutive starts, and lowered his ERA all the way down to 2.88. His WHIP is also sparkling clean at 1.174, thanks in large part to his 46.4 percent ground ball rate. He might pitch a complete game against these Indians.
Cleveland counters with Plesac, who I’m starting to think is just not that good. Like Kim, the third-year Indian has a high ground ball rate (50.8%). However, his hard-hit rate is a jarring 41.2 percent, and his average exit velocity is 89.2 mph. Plesac has given up nine homers over his last six games, and he has surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 27.1 innings. Cleveland’s defense has kept his WHIP at an incredible 1.062, but his ERA has crept up to 4.30. He also strikes out just 5.7 batters per nine innings.
Without Francisco Lindor, the Tribe has relied heavily on Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes. Ramirez has 20 dingers (and he hit one Tuesday night), but he’s hitting just .252 on the season. Reyes has shown great power numbers, but he’s currently battling back spasms. With Cleveland’s offense continuing to sputter, manager Terry Francona needs consistently solid pitching top to bottom. He’s not getting that—the Indians’ team ERA/WHIP are a paltry 4.88 (20th) and 1.31 (17th). Put the Cards on your betting card for an early-day win.
Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres
Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea vs. Blake Snell
MLB Bet: Athletics +110
Now, on to the 4:00 p.m. time slot. This contest features two great ballclubs, the 57-46 A’s against the 59-44 Padres. These squads battled Tuesday, with the Padres erasing a 3-0 deficit in the fifth inning by hanging seven runs on James Kaprielian and Yusmeiro Petit.
Just like I didn’t like the Padres as favorites behind Chris Paddack Tuesday, I don’t like them as favorites behind Blake Snell this afternoon. Snell is a shell of his former Cy Young self, coming in with a 4.93 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. He still fans a lot of batters, with a 28.7 percent strikeout rate—but his walk rate (14.1%) and hard-hit rate (41%) are far and away the worst marks of his career.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea has enjoyed a much better season than his 7-6 record would suggest. The sixth-year lefty has a 3.16 ERA and 1.183 WHIP, and he has 128 strikeouts on the year to just 28 walks (4.57:1 K/BB ratio). If Manaea had a few more wins, he might have made the AL All-Star team. But he often struggles to get run support—Oakland has scored four or fewer runs in 11 of his 20 starts this season (and in five of his last six).
The A’s should get more runs on the board Wednesday afternoon. In 24.1 innings of day baseball this season, Snell has an abysmal 8.14 ERA and 1.849 WHIP. He also has a 9.2 K/9 in day games, compared to 12.7 K/9 in night games. His opponent slash rate in daytime games: .277/.409/.543. It should be an A+ day for the A’s.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Kris Bubic
MLB Bet: White Sox -1.5 (-120)
Sticking with the White Sox worked out for us yesterday, as they staged a four-run eighth inning rally to overcome the feisty Royals. So, we are backing them with their ace on the mound Wednesday. This game really doesn’t require a ton of research—Chicago has a superior offense than Kansas City, and Giolito is a vastly superior pitcher than Bubic.
A lot of people will shy away from the South-Siders’ -1.5 run line at -120, but don’t be discouraged. Bubic has a 4.72 ERA and 1.500 WHIP, and he’s given up 14 homers in 17 appearances (nine starts). His metrics are alarming, with a 43.6 percent hard-hit rate and 89.9 average exit velocity. His walk rate is 11.7 percent, and opponents are batting .262 against him while slugging .488.
The White Sox have Eloy Jimenez back, Jose Abreu has returned to his 2020 MVP form this July, and Tony La Russa is somehow getting the best from his young squad on an everyday basis. This 43-56 Royals club doesn’t stand a chance of splitting this four-game series with the 60-41 Sox, never mind winning it. Stick with the Chi.