Wells Fargo Championship Golf Betting Tips: Outrights, Top-10 Picks, and Longshots
Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and sports betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, he will break down his favorite golf outright bets, top-10 picks, and longshots for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship
Welcome back to the weekly golf betting roundup article! We are just a few weeks away from the PGA Championship, so the new golf calendar just keeps us rolling all year long. Jon Rahm coasted to a wire-to-wire victory at last week’s Mexico Open, which wasn’t a surprise given the weak field. He closed at nearly +350 odds to win, which is incredible these days. You just don’t see that too often.
As we transition to a new week, we have the Wells Fargo Championship on the schedule. This tournament is usually held at Quail Hollow in North Carolina, but Quail Hollow is preparing to host the next President’s Cup. As such, TPC Potomac in Maryland will be the “fill in” venue. Be careful not to look at history from this event, as it will be irrelevant given the new host. TPC Potomac last hosted a PGA Tour event for the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. It is generally considered a difficult par 70 course.
Let’s try to find some winning picks!
Top Outright Bets — Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy to win (+900) – As I stated in the introduction, we finally saw a betting favorite dominate an event last week. Jon Rahm closed at around +350 odds and took home a relative wire-to-wire victory at the Mexico Open. Rory McIlroy is in something of the same boat this week, though his odds aren’t quite as short. Still, if every golfer in the field were to bring their top game… Rory would win the tournament. He finished strong on his way to a runner-up finish at The Masters, and you know he’s looking to keep that momentum rolling ahead of the upcoming PGA Championship. He’s my favorite pick at the top of the board, and these BetMGM odds are favorable, considering he’s around +750 on some other sportsbooks.
Russell Henley to win (+3200) – These are great odds on FanDuel. Grab them while you still can. Henley broke his streak of 12 consecutive cuts made to start the 2021-2022 season with a missed cut at the RBC Heritage in his last start. That might start to scare some people away, but this is a spot where we can still look to target him. He has four top 15 finishes in the 2022 calendar year already, and he’s another notoriously strong ball striker. Henley ranks sixth on Tour in tee to green play this year and eighth in ball striking. He hits plenty of fairways and rarely gets himself in trouble off the tee, which has value on this course. There’s a lot to like about him as a potential pick to win this tournament.
Top-10 Finish Bets
Paul Casey Top 10 Finish (+500, FanDuel) – If we take out all the external factors and say that Paul Casey is sitting at this price in this field, you have to be interested. Two months ago, he would have been sitting at about +250 or +300 for a top ten in this field. However, we can’t just ignore those other factors. Casey withdrew from two events recently, including The Masters, due to a back injury. There’s no way he’s a “safe” pick until he proves that he is healthy again. That said, I don’t think he would keep himself in the field if he didn’t fully believe that he was ready to go. It’s risky, but I’ll certainly take some shots on his ability with some smaller bets. This one is all about your risk tolerance.
Jhonnatan Vegas Top 10 Finish (+550, DraftKings) – Vegas is quietly having a strong year. He has made six of his last seven cuts, and that includes finishes of 27th, 4th, and 18th in his last three events. He is up to 19th on Tour in ball striking for the season, and he still seems to be flying under the radar to some degree. Give him a look in the top 10/top 20 markets.
Long Shots and Other Bets
Long Shots – This is absolutely an event where we could see a longer shot contend. With a new course and a weak field, the recipe is there for a potential surprise. Lanto Griffin closed with a very strong final round last week and sits at 150-to-1 on DraftKings. Lucas Glover is another solid dart throw at 125-to-1 on BetMGM. He could contend if the putter cooperates.
Brian Harman over Ryan Armour head-to-head (-136 on BetRivers) – Most of the models I have looked at this week like the fit for Brian Harman at this course. While he and Armour are somewhat similar players that generally profile as “safe” options to make a cut, I trust Harman a little more at this stage. Harman’s approach play has looked quite a bit better of late, while Armour has been scuffling with three missed cuts in his last five starts. Give me Harman in this head to head matchup.
Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!