2022 Wells Fargo Championship Preview: Odds and Golf Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

The Wells Fargo is upon us as we slowly get closer to the PGA Championship.  Rory McIlroy defends his championship from last season at a different venue.  TPC Potomac will host because Quail Hollow Golf Club is busy making preparations for the Presidents Cup.  Can we get back on the board after a frustrating stretch?  Let’s start with the betting odds.  

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

At the time of this writing –  May 4th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners at the Wells Fargo Championship:

2021 – Rory McIlroy (-6)

2019 – Max Homa (-11)

2018 – Jason Day (-8)

2017 – Brian Harman (-2)

2016 – James Hahn (-1)

2015 – Rory McIlroy (-13)

2014 – J.B. Holmes (-6)

Of course, these events all took place at Quail Hollow Golf club.  When the TPC Potomac last hosted a tour event, the Quicken Loans took place in 2017 and 2018.  In 2018, Francesco Molinari won the event at -21.  In 2017, Kyle Stanley (-7) defeated Charles Howell III in a playoff to win the event.  

The field is stronger than last week’s Mexico Open.  Rory slots in Jon Rahm’s spot as the elite but we get an infusion of talent with Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton, and others.  

156 golfers will play the event with the top 65 and ties making the cut for the weekend.  

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Potomac
• Date: May 5 – 8
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,160
• Greens: Bentgrass

Quail Hollow Golf Club will not host the event.  Do not approach this week with Quail Hollow as your golf course.  Performances over the last decade at Wells Fargo are not as meaningful with the course change because of the Presidents Cup.  

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Maryland hosted the Quicken Loans in 2017 and 2018.  Prior to hosting these events, the course experienced a major Tom Fazio/Pete Dye renovation in 2015.  Approach will be key as the course features various doglegs through trees, water in the form of streams and creeks, and Scottish-adjacent bunkers guarding greens.  

Only three players in the field rank in the Top 20 of the OWGR.  Those players are the favorite, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, and Abraham Ancer.  

Tony Finau lit up the last round of the Mexico Open, firing a 63 that vaulted him into a T2 finish.  Finau should come to this event with plenty of confidence and has gained on approach recently. 

Driving accuracy and iron play are the two biggest factors this week.  That said, SG: OTT still matters because length off the tee should be considered, somewhat.  I don’t want to isolate a statistical model to fairway finders like Brendan Todd who are incredibly short off the tee.

The two par 5’s are not the easiest holes on the course.  Instead, the short Par 4 14th should play close to 300 yards and boasts a 42.3% birdie rate and 3.9% eagle rate.  The first Par 5 (Hole #2) is not reachable in two for most players.  

Six holes are between 450 and 500 yards.  These Par 4’s are six of the seven most difficult holes on the course.  Number 11 has a bogey rate north of 28%.  SG: P4 450-500 will be included in statistical modeling for this week with a bit of extra weight.  

Rounding out the model, I’ll be looking at SG: Putting and SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens, Proximity from 175-200, GIRs gained, FIRS gained, and SG: Approach.  As ever, Approach will bring the highest weight.  

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Corey Conners +2500 (Bet365)

Boost alert.  At the time of this writing, Bet365 has a boost for Corey Conners at 25/1 to win the tournament.  My love for Corey Conners should come to no surprise as the Canadian finds himself in my article at least once per month.  

I will admit that I have a great deal of FOMO when betting Conners to win tournaments.  That said, this venue and course seem to be a great fit for the Corey Conners make up.  Ball striker who gains off the tee and is very accurate with his irons.  Corey Conners is likely the best blend of those two categories in the field.  

His price tag is 20/1 around most betting sites but I would still be buying.  Conners makes for a good top of my card for 1.5 units at the +2500 I found at Bet365.  

Cameron Young +4000 (Unibet)

Speaking of FOMO, I will not miss Cameron Young’s first win.  No way.  No how.  

Young bounced back after a tough first go at the Masters with a third place finish at the RBC Heritage.  Young opened the event with an incredible first round – leaving me in tears as I ruminate over not being there for his first victory.  Fortunately, for me and not Cam, Young did not close with a victory.  I can still be there for his first win.  

And be there, I will.  Young is second to our next golfer in SG: OTT and 1st in SG: P4 450-500.  Unlike many other bombers, Young is not a terrible putter, sitting inside the Top 40 with the flat stick.  

We are going a full unit on Cam this week hoping to be there when he hoists his first trophy.  

Keith Mitchell +5500 (FanDuel)

Our next golfer is none other than Keith Mitchell.  Mitchell is most likely renowned for his length off the tee.  For me, Mitchell is most renowned for his final pairing with Rory McIlroy at this event last year.  

Mitchell was paired with Rory to open the final round of the Wells Fargo last year and promptly birdied.  The ticket was enormous and the win would have been massive.  Unfortunately, Rory at Quail Hollow was too much. 

Mitchell leads the field in SG: OTT and sits 3rd in the pretty important P4 450-500 stat mentioned above.  At 55/1, I think he is the perfect fit for a price on our third spot.  Mitchell’s most recent start at the Players was a T20 – he comes in with 5 consecutive made cuts – four of which in the Top 10.  We will  place ⅝ unit on Keith for our third slot.  

Matt NeSmith +10000 (DraftKings)

Last, but not least.  I present to you Diet Corey Conners…  Matt NeSmith.  NeSmith has shown form as of late with a recent 12th-place finish at the Heritage.  NeSmith brings several of the skills that Corey Conners brings to the table – at a far better price.  

NeSmith sits 14th in SG: Approach, 9th in GIRs, and 20th in Fairways.  His 9th rank in Proximity 175-200 is very appealing.  For his price in betting markets and in DFS, NeSmith might be my favorite play of the week.  We will round out our card with ⅜ of a unit on Matt, for a total of 3.5 units in play.  

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Card

Well, the dry spell continues after the Mexico Open.  Tony Finau made a late run and needed a Jon Rahm slip-up late to make a playoff.  Unfortunately for Tony and myself, Rahm closed the tournament in strong fashion.  We kept it light and only wagered 3.5625 units because of the uncertainty the new course brought to the table.  

Hopefully, we rebound this week and find a winning bet on Sunday.  Good luck, everyone.

2022 Profit in Units:  +84.0625 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.