New York Yankees Pitching Preview and Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young Odds – 2022

Check out this 2022 Yankees pitching preview along with Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young odds. Use our PointsBet promo code to claim $2000 in risk-free bets before Opening Day, and find more offers on our NY sports betting page.

New York Yankees 2022 MLB Futures

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 91.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1200
• Division Winner: +250
• To Make the Playoffs: -355
• American League Winner: +600
• World Series Champion: +1300

Yankees Starting Rotation

New York Yankees Cy Young Odds

Gerrit Cole (+425)

In 2021, Gerrit Cole finished second in American League Cy Young voting, partly, due to the atrocious defense that the Yankees played behind him. Cole’s xERA was 0.39 points better than Robbie Ray, who won the award. Cole’s FIP was 0.77 points better than Ray’s. Cole also struck-out a higher percentage of batters and walked fewer hitters than Ray. Quite simply, if not for the Yankees defense being significantly worse than the Toronto Blue Jays, Cole would likely have won this award in 2021. This is even more impressive when considering that Cole pitched through a hamstring injury during September, during which he posted a 6.15 ERA and a 5.14 FIP. Though commendable, pitching while hurt unquestionably hurt his numbers–both on the back of his baseball card and in the final voting for Cy Young. Cole was also a victim of the sticky substance ban, posting a 5.24 ERA and a 5.70 FIP in six starts spanning from June 3rd to July 4th, before making a necessary adjustment to increase his grip without help from a foreign substance. Assuming good health, better defense behind him, and no mid-season changes to what substances pitchers can use to help them command the baseball–Cole should be the favorite to win this honor in 2022. Few pitchers combine overpowering velocity with elite spin rates and an ability to generate weak contact the way Cole does. It is less sexy to bet on the favorite than the longshot, but in this case, Cole is well-deserving of his current market price.

Cole’s AL Cy Young odds are +350 at Caesars, but you can get +425 at BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook, per the Scores And Odds MLB futures page.

Luis Severino (+10000)

On September 21st, Luis Severino took the mound in a big-league game for the first time in 707 days. In six innings spanning four appearances to end the regular season, he topped out at 98 miles-per-hour with his fastball, mixing in his devastating slider and changeup to generate swings-and-misses. In the limited sample size, Severino scattered two hits and a walk without allowing a run while striking-out eight batters. Severino last pitched more than 12.0 innings in a season in 2018, during which he ranked in the 82nd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 86th percentile in walk-rate. Similar to his rotation-mate, Cole, Severino possesses a rare combination of elite velocity, spin rate, and command. If he is healthy in 2022, the Yankees have arguably the best front of the rotation in the entire American League.

Jameson Taillon (+20000)

Jameson Taillon missed the entire 2020 campaign, but returned to the field with the New York Yankees in 2021 and did not disappoint. He showed some rust during the first half of the year, entering the All-Star break with a 4.90 ERA and a 4.66 FIP. However, a 3.50 ERA and a 4.13 FIP across his final 12 starts showcased the upside that the former second overall draft selection still has in his arm. In 144.1 innings, Taillon ended the season ranking in the 58th percentile in xwOBA and the 58th percentile in xERA while displaying the same above average command and elite spin rates that had player development offices drooling over him from 2016 to 2018. Even further removed from his second Tommy John surgery, Taillon is poised to have a productive 2022 if he can stay on the field. He is one of the better middle-of-the-rotation options in baseball.

Jordan Montgomery (+15000)

Despite a fastball that ranked in only the 20th percentile in velocity, Jordan Montgomery was excellent in 2021–posting a 3.83 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP. He does not have phenomenal movement on his secondary offerings, but he reliably keeps the ball out of the middle of the plate, and mixes his five pitches deftly to keep opposing hitters off balance. Montgomery’s bread and butter is his changeup and curveball, both of which held hitters to a .260 wOBA or better last summer. If Montgomery decreases the usage of his more hittable sinker, fastball, and cutter in favor of more slow stuff in 2022–he could be even better than he was last season. Not many teams have a player of Montgomery’s caliber as their fourth best starting pitcher.

Nestor Cortes

Per Dan Martin of the New York Post, Domingo German was placed on the 60-day injured list with right shoulder soreness, opening the door for Nestor Cortes to fill the final spot in the Opening Day rotation. Cortes ranked in only the 7th percentile in fastball velocity in 2021, but still ranked in the 64th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout and walk percentage. Cortes was much better against left-handed hitters than he was against right-handed hitters last summer, but he was more than serviceable no matter who he was facing in the box. Cortes profiles better as a middle reliever, but he is capable of filling the void on the starting staff until New York either makes a trade or gets German back from the injured list. The Yankees have some uncertainty in their rotation, but they are much better off than most teams in the league.

Bullpen Preview

In 2021, the Yankees bullpen ranked 5th in FIP (3.72), 1st in xFIP (3.78), 4th in strikeout percentage (26.6%), 6th in walk-rate (8.9%), and 4th in WHIP (1.21). 

Per Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Boone ranked 3rd in the MLB last season in wRM+, indicating that he was one of the most shrewd minds in baseball when it came to managing the late innings. Many New York fans may argue that he did not pass the eye test when it came to pulling the right strings, but then again–it is hard to press the wrong button when nearly every player in a team’s bullpen is borderline elite or better.

Aroldis Chapman allowed only 5 hits across his first 17.0 innings of work in 2021 while striking out 36 batters. Then, he posted a 6.48 ERA and a 7.25 FIP from May 21st to August 24th, suspiciously coinciding with the league-wide ban on foreign substances. Fortunately for Yankees fans, he seemed to figure out how to adjust by the end of the regular season–posting a 1.88 ERA and a 3.03 FIP across his last 14.1 innings of work while striking-out 26 batters. Entering the final year of his contract, Chapman should have plenty of motivation to have an excellent 2022.

Chad Green was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last summer, despite the fact that he was obviously overworked and consistently put into extremely difficult situations without ample rest. His fastball ranked in the 84th percentile in velocity and the 94th percentile in spin rate. It is no surprise that he used the pitch for 65.2 percent of his offerings, turning to his plus-curveball as his primary pitch to generate swings-and-misses. Green has ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in strikeout percentage in each of the last four full seasons. If Boone can manage to treat him more like a human being and less like a machine in 2022, the results could be even better.

Jonathan Loaisiga was arguably the most dominant relief pitcher in all of baseball last season, ranking in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, chase rate, and fastball velocity. He ranked a slightly more mortal 93rd percentile in xBA and in the 86th percentile in walk-rate. Loaisiga pairs elite command with elite velocity and spin rates to make life miserable on opposing hitters. His sinker, changeup, and curveball each held opposing batters to a putrid .267 wOBA or lower. Johnny Lasagna’s promising career is just heating up. There should be plenty of delicious leftovers in 2022.

Clay Holmes was the latest New York reliever to graduate to elite status in the arm barn in 2021, delivering a 3.60 ERA, 2.94 xERA, and a 3.28 FIP across 70.0 innings of work. He finished the year ranked in the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity, the 79th percentile in hard-hit percentage, the 91st percentile in xwOBA, and the 91st percentile in xERA. The most notable change made from 2019 to 2021 was a dramatic reduction in curveball usage in favor of his sinker and slider. It’s not hard to see why the change was made. Last year, opposing hitters posted a .362 wOBA against his curveball, but only a .271 wOBA against his sinker and a .201 wOBA against his slider. His slider generated an outstanding 37.8 swing-and-miss percentage as his primary punch-out pitch. Assuming Holmes sticks with what works, he is poised for another excellent campaign in 2022.

Lucas Luetge would have been the best relief pitcher on most big-league rosters in 2021, but he was arguably only the 5th best late-inning option for the Yankees. His 88th percentile average exit velocity, 81st percentile xwOBA, and 81st percentile xERA were each outstanding. His elite command and above average strikeout ability were equally impressive. Per Baseball Prospectus, Luetge featured the highest spin rate on a cutter of any reliever in the MLB. He will not have the opportunity to pitch in many high leverage situations in 2022, but that says more about the depth of the New York bullpen than it does his ability as a pitcher.

A quick look at Michael King’s final statistics will leave any evaluator feeling sluggish about him entering the new campaign. However, much of the damage to his season-long numbers in 2021 happened as a starter. King was far more effective in relief, posting a 3.17 FIP and a 26.1 strikeout percentage, compared to a 4.95 FIP and a 17.5 strikeout percentage as a starter. As if the Yankees need any more weapons in their bullpen, King turned in a 0.96 ERA and a 1.67 FIP from July 3rd to September 30th after he was demoted from the rotation. Continued success in relief would minimize even the slightest of weaknesses in this bullpen unit.

Before the New York media starts shaming Wandy Peralta for *checks notes* being league average, it is important to remember that not every inning of relief is high leverage. Peralta’s xERA graded in exactly the 50th percentile last summer, pitching primarily in low leverage situations. Even Peralta was excellent at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and the 97th percentile in chase rate. The Yankees do not need him to be any better than he was in 2021, but there appears to be a slightly higher ceiling for Peralta if he cuts back on his fastball and slider usage in favor of his changeup and sinker.

Albert Abreu turned in a 5.15 ERA, 4.92 xERA, and a 5.90 FIP in 36.2 innings of work in 2021. His fastball ranks in the 98th percentile in baseball in velocity, but extremely poor command will keep him far from high leverage situations in 2022. No need to fret, Yankees fans.