Yankees vs. White Sox Odds, Pick and Prediction (5/14/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Yankees vs. White Sox odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Saturday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Yankees vs. White Sox Odds

Tonight, the New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox will continue their four-game, weekend set at Guaranteed Rate Field. New York has won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 25-11 in back-to-back high-scoring affairs. On Saturday, bettors could be treated to another offensive explosion with two left-handed pitchers on the mound, facing offenses that love to hit southpaws. Oddsmakers anticipate another Yankees victory in this one, pricing them as -164 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

New York Yankees

Jordan Montgomery owns a 2.90 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.23 FIP through six turns in the rotation in 2022. He ranks in the 56th percentile in average exit velocity, 73rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, 81st percentile in barrel percentage, 89th percentile in walk-rate, and the 78th percentile or better in both whiff percentage and chase rate. Montgomery draws a difficult matchup today, but he is more than capable of still delivering a strong performance.

The Yankees offense has been one of the best in baseball for the entirety of the campaign to this point. Across the last two weeks, New York ranks 8th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 13th in strikeout percentage. Against left-handed pitching this year, the Yankees are 3rd in OPS, 1st in ISO, 19th in walk percentage, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. The strikeout problems may be less noticeable today against a starting pitcher who ranks in only the 5th percentile in strikeout percentage this year.

Back-to-back comfortable wins have enabled Manager Aaron boone to save his relief unit from being overused. Aroldis Chapman and Clay Holmes have not thrown since Wednesday. Chad Green, Lucas Luetge, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Miguel Castro were each rested yesterday and have only thrown once in the last three days.

Chicago White Sox

Dallas Keuchel managed to hold the Boston Red Sox to only two runs across six innings of work in his last outing, but the veteran southpaws still owns a ghastly 6.86 ERA, 4.45 xERA, and a 5.47 FIP through five outings in 2022. Keuchel has done a good job limiting hard contact, but a 5th percentile strikeout percentage, 25th percentile walk-rate, and below average velocity paired with below average spin rates make him a fadeable target every time he toes the rubber. This is especially true in matchups against dangerous lineups, such as the Yankees.

The White Sox continue to struggle mightily with the bats, ranking 14th in OPS, 19th in ISO, 23rd in walk percentage, and 3rd in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks of action. Chicago has been much better against left-handed pitching, ranking 5th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 15th in walk percentage, and 10th in strikeout percentage, but this remains a difficult spot for them against a talented opposing starter in Montgomery.

If there is any hope for the White Sox in this one, it is in the late innings. Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, and the rest of Manager Tony La Russa’s favorite high-leverage relief options are all rested ahead of today’s action. The challenge will be keeping this game close enough to warrant Hendricks and Graveman entering the contest in the final few frames

Yankees vs. White Sox Pick

Entering play, both of these teams rank in the top-five in OPS and ISO against left-handed pitching. The Yankees and White Sox have combined for 36 runs during the first two games of this series. Bettors should not expect the offense to slow down on Saturday. Take the over here.

• PICK: Over 9 Runs (-110)